Who will win the next Champions League? Bookmakers have delivered their opinion, and place the Paris Saint Germain and Manchester City among the main favorites of the competition. But what do the statistics say? The Euro Club Index (ECI) site, which is defined as “A ranking of football teams in the highest division of all European countries, which shows their relative playing strengths at a given moment, and the development of their playing strengths over time”, delivered his predictions for the next Champions League based on data provided by GraceNote.

It turns out that the two most likely Champions League winners are Bayern Munich and Manchester City, with around 17% luck each. Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, with a 10% chance. Paris Saint-Germain are only eighth among the contenders, with less than a 6% chance of lifting the trophy. PSG behind Barça in the list of possible winners? After the last transfer window, and the transfer of Lionel Messi, this is a surprising prediction.

Bayern Munich are our favourites to win the 2021/2022 #ChampionsLeague

82% chance that one of our top-8 ranked clubs will win the competition.

Find the chance of your favourite in the graph and check https://t.co/LA8xz4wbPT for updates.#UCL pic.twitter.com/9Sm5FM9nxu

— Euro Club Index (@EuroClubIndex) September 14, 2021

Curiously, PSG has almost as much chance of winning … the Europa League, with 4.6% chance of lifting the C3 this season, according to the same site. Because the club of the capital is not guaranteed to cross the group stage. According to ECI’s predictions, PSG have only a 73% chance of reaching the knockout stages of the Champions League. He has an 18.6% chance of being transferred to the Europa League, and an 8.4% chance of finishing last in his group. If we are based on this tool, PSG would therefore have a much better chance of being eliminated from the group stage than of winning the Champions League, which is not really the project.

Little, for his part, can prepare for the worst, with a 50.8% chance of finishing last in his group, and only a 32.1% chance of reaching the round of 16.

Want to know our assessment of your team in the #ChampionsLeague?

All our forecasts of the chances of reaching the knockout phase of the Champions League, Europa League or being eliminated from Europe can be found in the attached tables. #UCL #UEFAChampionsLeague pic.twitter.com/BKkMug03MH

— Euro Club Index (@EuroClubIndex) September 14, 2021